Genesis Invitational – Tiger Woods expectations, picks, best bets

LOS ANGELES — Tiger Woods will tee it up on the Genesis Invitational on Thursday (3:04 p.m. ET, ESPN+) in his first official PGA Tour occasion in almost seven months. At a information convention Tuesday, Woods instructed reporters he wouldn’t be enjoying within the occasion if he didn’t consider he may contend and even win.

Whereas all eyes will likely be on Woods, there will likely be no scarcity of nice golf this weekend. The Official World Golf Rating’s high three of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm will proceed to combat for the No. 1 spot amongst a good area of an elevated occasion.

After watching follow rounds and the pro-am on Wednesday morning at Riviera Nation Membership, our golf specialists weighed in on what to anticipate this weekend:

Riviera could be a powerful stroll, but it surely’s a favourite of Tiger’s. How did he take a look at follow and through Wednesday’s pro-am?

Mark Schlabach: I used to be shocked Woods was enjoying in an 18-hole pro-am. I assume in the event you’re internet hosting the match, you need to do every thing that you simply’re asking everybody else to do. It was chilly and windy, however he did not appear significantly stiff on the follow vary. He was strolling with out a limp all through the entrance 9 and did not appear to have an issue till the previous couple of holes. I do not know if his resolution to cease enjoying after a very good shot on 16 was due to ache, or that he was achieved enjoying with not excellent golfers. He took his time strolling up and down hills on the course, however tackled the 52 steps from the 18th inexperienced to the scoring tent very effectively.

Paolo Uggetti: It was a windy and chilly 41 levels right here in Pacific Palisades when Woods teed off Wednesday at 6:30 a.m. PT. The solar was barely out, however there was nonetheless a small gallery round him (no followers had been allowed on property Wednesday) as he fired off the driving force down the primary fairway. At first, it was troublesome to inform how snug Woods was strolling, however because the entrance 9 went alongside, he didn’t have a noticeable limp and seemed to be strolling significantly better than the final time we noticed him play. On the again 9, nonetheless, Woods started to stroll slower and his slight weight compensation resurfaced.

As Woods detailed to the media Wednesday, hitting pictures will not be a difficulty, however his proper ankle is. Nevertheless, Woods did say he had particularly ready to play — and presumably stroll — this course. He was in good spirits Wednesday even because the wind picked up and hitting pictures turned a bit extra treacherous.

Tiger says he got here to win. Is that what we will count on?

Schlabach: Woods mentioned he would not have proven up on the Genesis to play if he did not assume he may contend or win the match. After what we witnessed a yr in the past, I feel making the lower and sticking round for the weekend can be an enormous step ahead. Woods is 47 years previous. He performed solely 9 rounds in three main championships final season. He was pressured to tug out of the PGA Championship after 54 holes and missed the lower at The Open at St. Andrews in July, the final time he performed in an official PGA Tour occasion.

Woods mentioned his surgically repaired proper leg is in higher form than it was a yr in the past. He’s nonetheless coping with ache in his proper ankle, in addition to plantar fasciitis in his proper foot. He acknowledged that he hasn’t walked 18 holes for 4 straight days this yr. Hitting good pictures is not an issue. As he has mentioned many instances, it is nonetheless about getting from level A to level B. Will Woods’ leg, ankle and foot maintain up over 4 days if he makes the lower? Sadly, that is going to be the query each time he competes going ahead.

Uggetti: At this level, it might be unusual and out of character if Woods mentioned he was enjoying a match simply to play it and never attempt to win. He is been repeatedly vocal about the truth that he’ll solely tee it up if he can win, however that does not imply we should always count on that. Take away the truth that he is coming off main surgical procedures and a protracted layoff, and the problem at hand remains to be that of beating one of the best gamers on the earth at a PGA Tour designated occasion.

Making the lower, as Schlabach mentioned, can be an enormous ethical victory for anybody however him. At this level, that feels sensible however not a assure. For Woods and actually the golf world at giant, the hope is that enjoying in tournaments like this one assist him put together for the tournaments that he actually desires to nonetheless win — the majors.

He’ll tee it up at 3:04 p.m. ET on Thursday in a brilliant group of Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. What is going to we see from them?

Schlabach: Hogan’s Alley is a shotmaker’s course, and few PGA Tour gamers are higher with a mid-iron or wedge in his hand than Thomas, certainly one of Woods’ closest buddies. Thomas bought off to a little bit of a sluggish begin in 2023, however his kind began to return collectively on the WM Phoenix Open, the place he carded a 65 on Sunday and completed solo fourth. After lacking the lower in back-to-back begins at Riviera Nation Membership, Thomas was sixth final yr. Thomas’ work across the inexperienced is world-class, and he’ll be troublesome to beat if his putter will get sizzling.

I used to be a bit shocked that McIlroy wasn’t a consider Phoenix, given how effectively he had performed over the previous few months. Then once more, TPC Scottsdale has by no means been certainly one of his favourite tracks; he usually skipped the occasion till it turned a chosen one. Mcllroy has been higher at Riv, with three top-10 finishes in his previous 4 begins. His ballstriking in Phoenix wasn’t dangerous, however he by no means appeared snug on the inexperienced. McIlroy is a menace to win each time he tees it up these days.

Uggetti: Far be it from me to bemoan a featured group of this magnitude, however this feels a bit an excessive amount of like an Avengers scenario, particularly a yr after Riv turned the recent spot for all LIV rumors and these three have been staunchly pro-PGA Tour since. That being mentioned, McIlroy has been vocal previously about how enjoying in a gaggle with Woods is not all the time one of the best for his recreation. The gallery Thursday will likely be large and loud, and whereas I am certain each Thomas and McIlroy take pleasure in enjoying with Woods, it will not be straightforward.

It seems like McIlroy is due for a robust efficiency in one of many designated occasions. As Schlabach identified, he has a historical past of enjoying effectively right here and has been placing the ball at an elite degree for the previous 10 months or so. It is exhausting to gauge how Thomas will do at any given occasion however I will be to see how his placing fares on Riv’s small, undulating greens. Up to now this season, Thomas is 159th in strokes gained: placing and has already switched putters as soon as.

It has been an actual battle on the high of the standings. How will Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler truthful at Riviera?

Schlabach: As a lot as Scheffler received final season, it is exhausting to consider he did not win once more after the Masters and went 10 months with out a victory till ending first at Phoenix. After ending his “drought” at TPC Scottsdale, one has to surprise if he is about to place collectively one other heater like final season, when he received 4 instances in six begins and picked up his first main at Augusta Nationwide. When Scheffler will get it rolling, he is powerful to decelerate. He has solely 4 begins at Riviera however did progressively higher in every of them: missed lower, thirtieth, twentieth and seventh final yr. He led the sector in strokes gained: tee to inexperienced and method final week. That will be one other good recipe on the Genesis. Scheffler loves competing in large occasions, and with 23 of the highest 25 gamers on the earth right here, he’ll be extremely motivated to win.

Nearly as good as Scheffler and McIlroy have been, I am undecided anybody has been as constant as Rahm. The Spaniard has made 5 begins this season, together with back-to-back wins on the Sentry Match of Champions and American Specific. Rahm did not have his finest stuff at Phoenix final week however nonetheless managed to complete solo third. There’s not any a part of his recreation that is not firing on all cylinders proper now; he is driving the ball far, hitting greens and making putts.

Uggetti: It feels just like the cream of the crop is beginning to not simply rise this season however keep on the high. Even when Rahm struggles, he appears to revert to his elite self virtually instantly and make a run on the leaders. In the meantime, Scheffler is the tour’s quiet fixed. He may not get paired with Woods like Thomas and McIlroy, however to listen to him speak about his weekly method, he would possibly choose flying a bit beneath the radar in comparison with his extra well-known friends.

I’d not be shocked to see each Rahm and Scheffler within the high 5 this week. It is a course that units up effectively for each (largely as a result of, effectively, each a part of their video games appear to be thriving). An supposed impact of the tour’s new designated occasions appears to be permitting for one of the best gamers on the earth to show themselves to be simply that. Nobody is doing that higher in the meanwhile than Rahm and Scheffler.

Who’s profitable this week?

Schlabach: Give me JT. He is rounding into kind and can wish to carry out effectively whereas enjoying with Woods within the first two rounds. He loves the course, despite the fact that it is the place he misplaced to good buddy Jordan Spieth within the 2012 NCAA championship. It might additionally imply rather a lot for Thomas to win Woods’ match, particularly since Tiger hasn’t received at Riviera Nation Membership.

Uggetti: It is rather troublesome to choose anybody aside from the trio of Rahm, McIlroy and Scheffler proper now, however in an effort to exit of the field a bit, I feel this week units up effectively for a repeat winner like Max Homa. The Southern California native did not have his finest stuff in Phoenix, however the best way he is been hitting the ball as of late, it is simple to see him bouncing again in an enormous approach at a course he is already received at.

Greatest bets

Collin Morikawa to win (22-1); Tourney matchup Morikawa over Spieth (-140)

Anita Marks: Morikawa has been a stud within the Golden State. He has among the finest fades on tour, ranks seventh in SG-Tee-to-Inexperienced, sixth in Method and thirteenth off the tee. He additionally putts effectively at Riviera Nation Membership.

Xander Schauffele top-5 end (+350); first-round chief (30-1)

Marks: Schauffele ranks fifth in tee-to-green, seventh in par-4 scoring and has completed no worse than T-23 to T019 in 5 appearances at Riviera Nation Membership.

Tiger Woods, top-40 end (2-1)

Marks: Woods is making his fifteenth look in Riviera this weekend however has by no means received the occasion. Nevertheless, he has completed as runner-up twice.

Tiger Woods, top-40 end (2-1)

David Bearman: Whereas Scheffler, Rahm and Nick Taylor bought a lot of the consideration final week, JT snuck right into a fourth-place end with a 67-65 end. It was simply what he wanted after a sluggish begin to the 2023 marketing campaign. Now in good kind, JT heads to play Riviera, the place he completed runner-up in 2019 and was sixth final yr.

Adam Scott (60-1) to win; top-10 end (+450)

Bearman: Each course has a “Horse for Course” and that golfer right here at Riviera is Adam Scott. He was the winner in 2005 and 2020, runner-up two further instances and T-4 final yr as a part of seven high 10s in 14 appearances. The all-time cash chief at this occasion can also be well-rested, having been off since finishing the Hawaii swing with a T-21 end at Sony.

Tiger Woods to make the lower (+150)

Bearman: You simply aren’t going to get many alternatives to play Tiger to make the weekend at plus cash. I do know he hasn’t performed competitively since final July, however as he says, he is not teeing it up for present … he is in it to win it. Not saying he’ll, however he has made the lower in 11 of 12 appearances as a professional. Plus, you need one thing to root for, proper?