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Tim BontempsESPN
Will this NBA season characteristic one of many closest Most Worthwhile Participant votes in league historical past?
If ESPN’s last MVP straw ballot of 2022-23 is any indication, buckle up, as Philadelphia 76ers heart Joel Embiid has overtaken Denver Nuggets heart and two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic.
By two factors.
Not solely did Embiid edge Jokic in complete factors — 790 to 788 — however Jokic truly had extra first-place votes (42 for Jokic, 40 for Embiid). The distinction: Embiid completed in second place on 45 ballots — six greater than Jokic — to provide the Sixers large man a slight lead over his rival.
In the meantime, Milwaukee Bucks ahead Giannis Antetokounmpo — a two-time MVP in his personal proper — grabbed the remaining 18 first-place votes, and he lurks inside placing distance as one of the best participant on the crew with essentially the most wins (55) within the league, making a troublesome alternative for voters even more durable.
Add all of it up and, with only a handful of days to go within the common season, a lot of these polled are nonetheless unsure about how they may in the end vote.
“These might not be my last solutions,” one voter mentioned.
One other requested, “Cannot you wait till after the common season is over?”
The most important takeaway from the ballot — carried out in a 36-hour interval from Monday afternoon via Tuesday night time within the wake of Embiid lacking Monday’s extremely anticipated showdown with Jokic in Denver on account of a proper calf harm — is that an already contentious MVP race will actually be unsure up till the league pronounces the winner throughout the early portion of this 12 months’s playoffs.
“Might they tie for MVP?” Dallas coach Jason Kidd mentioned with a smile earlier than Wednesday night time’s recreation between his Mavericks and Embiid’s 76ers in Philadelphia.
“Let’s examine if we are able to get that completed.”
A traditionally tight race to the end
Embiid’s two-point margin of victory, if it had been to hold over to the precise MVP vote at season’s finish, would simply eclipse the closest race since media voting turned the norm throughout the 1980-81 season.
After the 1989-90 marketing campaign, it was Corridor of Famers Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan tightly bunched collectively, with Barkley garnering essentially the most first-place votes at 38.
However whereas Johnson completed with 27 first-place votes, what pushed him excessive to win the award was ending in second on 38 ballots. Coupled with Jordan’s end — he had 21 first-place votes, with extra second- and third-place votes than Barkley — it allowed the ultimate vote to swing in Johnson’s favor.
Historical past might be repeating itself with the vote between Embiid, Jokic and Antetokounmpo. However the race for the 2023 MVP did not begin this fashion.
It was clear this 12 months’s race had an opportunity to be huge open when, within the season’s first straw ballot in December, Boston Celtics ahead Jayson Tatum led the best way by simply 92 complete factors. On the time, that margin was the second smallest of any of the earlier 12 straw polls carried out for the reason that 2016-17 season. (The closest got here in the course of final season, when Embiid led Jokic by 35 complete factors.)
The vote swung towards Jokic within the second ballot, taken simply earlier than the All-Star break. Jokic claimed 77 of the 100 first-place votes, with Antetokounmpo (11 first-place votes) ending second and Embiid (six first-place votes) third.
On the time, Jokic’s lead was seemingly cemented and so was his bid to assert the award for a 3rd straight season — one thing solely Larry Hen, Wilt Chamberlain and Invoice Russell have completed.
However a collection of things have prompted the race to tighten dramatically.
There was snapback from Jokic’s large lead in MVP odds, as a number of straw ballot voters expressed that there’s a increased bar to clear for a 3rd straight MVP. Denver misplaced 4 straight video games and 5 out of six earlier this month. Philadelphia, for its half, gained eight straight video games in opposition to the league’s hardest post-All-Star schedule, per ESPN Stats & Data analysis. Milwaukee has gained 26 of its previous 30 video games with Antetokounmpo within the lineup.
And one of many last large moments of the season — Embiid and Jokic’s showdown — was misplaced when Embiid sat due to his sore calf.
“I feel Joel’s physique of labor speaks for itself,” 76ers coach Doc Rivers mentioned when requested if he thought Embiid lacking the sport might affect his candidacy. “We did the fitting factor there, so I do not assume that is truthful. You are not judged for one recreation, that I do know of.
“You are judged for the whole season, by your crew’s document and by the way you carry out. And he is been dominant.”
The case for the highest three, and why Giannis might play spoiler
Every star within the Embiid-Jokic-Antetokounmpo trio is greater than deserving on deserves.
Jokic has led Denver to one of the best document within the Western Convention, averaging 24.9 factors, 11.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists. He’s inside attain of turning into the third participant in NBA historical past to common a triple-double for a season — and the one 7-footer to take action — matching the feats of Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook.
Embiid leads the league in scoring (33.2 factors per recreation) for a second straight season to associate with averages of 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. The 76ers are near locking up the No. 3 seed within the Japanese Convention playoffs.
Antetokounmpo is averaging 31.2 factors, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists for the crew with the league’s finest document.
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And Antetokounmpo is shut sufficient that it isn’t inconceivable he might leapfrog each Jokic and Embiid in MVP voting, as Antetokounmpo completed the newest straw ballot with 18 first-place votes, 15 second-place votes and 64 third-place votes for 612 complete factors.
What’s extra probably, although, is that Antetokounmpo’s third-place presence within the race, like Jordan’s in 1990, might assist swing the vote between Jokic and Embiid. Performances down the stretch, like Wednesday night time’s 38-point triple-double, might trigger Antetokounmpo’s first-place vote totals to rise.
However at which star heart’s expense?
Better of the remainder — and the top of one other Kings drought?
A Grand Canyon-sized chasm beneath the highest three ended with Tatum in fourth; he acquired 90 of the 100 fourth-place votes and completed with 292 complete factors. One other important drop-off adopted, as Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (37 factors), Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32 factors), Sacramento Kings heart Domantas Sabonis (20 factors) and Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (15 factors) checked in with giant chunks of fifth-place votes.
Voters struggled selecting which star to put fifth on ballots, with some uncertain they may give an MVP vote to a participant on a crew at the moment beneath .500, comparable to Dallas’ Doncic and Oklahoma Metropolis’s Gilgeous-Alexander.
Some voters wished to reward Sabonis for the best way the Kings have carried out this season, clinching each a profitable document and a playoff berth for the primary time for the reason that 2005-06 marketing campaign.
And if Sabonis does garner any MVP votes this season, it will break an excellent longer streak than Sacramento’s playoff drought: Peja Stojakovic in 2003-04 was the final King to obtain an MVP vote, in accordance with ESPN Stats & Information information.
Rounding out the sphere: Miami Warmth ahead Jimmy Butler (4 factors) in ninth, Kings guard De’Aaron Fox and Celtics ahead Jaylen Brown (three factors) in a tie for tenth, Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (two factors) in twelfth and Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker and Memphis Grizzlies ahead Jaren Jackson Jr. tied for thirteenth with one level.